Applied Econometrics

A large literature studies the predictability of stock returns by other lagged financial variables in a predictive regression setting. A common feature of widely used testing procedures is a failing robustness, which may lead to misleading conclusions determined by the particular features of a small subfraction of the data. We propose a new general method to deal with this problem based on the robust subsampling approach. The method implies robust confidence intervals and inference results. It is applicable both in the multipredictor context and in settings with nearly integrated regressors. Simulation evidence confirms the higher accuracy and efficiency of our robust testing approach for typical applications in which the data may follow only approximately a predictive regression model. We apply our approach to US equity data from 1961 to 2008 and find that it yields a stronger evidence in favor of predictability than a number of other (nonrobust) tests in the literature.

How do demographic and educational factors affect a woman's occupational status? How common is non standard employment for different labour force groups and in different sectors of the labour market? This paper aims at analysing the impact of different "structural variables" in terms of risk for a woman working in the province of Pisa to be employed with a non-standard contract. Determinants of women's atypical employment in Pisa are studied using microdata for approximately 425.000 women employed in Pisa. Section 1 summarizes previous literature. Section 2 shows some descriptive evidence and the incidence patterns that exist for different demographic groups. In Section 3 regression methods are used to explore the association between particular worker characteristics and the likelihood of being employed in atypical jobs. Multivariate analyses conducted on administrative microdata during the economic crisis (2008-2013) show that some structural variables (citizenshi...

This study investigates the relationship between government spending and trade balance in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2005 to 2022 using an autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model and balanced World Bank panel data. The findings reveal a significant short-and long-term association between the variables. A 10% rise in government spending results in a 6.3% short-term trade balance decline but a 30.9% improvement in the long run, illustrating a J-curve effect. Cointegration and Granger causality tests confirm a stable, causal relationship. The study recommends strategic spending policies to mitigate short-term deficits and boost long-term trade performance.

Estadística Descriptiva e Inferencial, Ejercicios y Soluciones es un manual que condensa años de experiencia docente en cursos de grado y posgrado en estadística, ofreciendo un enfoque claro y estructurado para estudiantes, profesionales y académicos. Cada capítulo introduce de manera precisa un método estadístico, seguido de explicaciones paso a paso que permiten no solo su comprensión teórica, sino también su aplicación práctica a través de ejercicios resueltos. El libro se distingue por adaptar los ejercicios a casos reales de áreas como Administración de Empresas, Marketing y Negocios Digitales, lo que lo convierte en una herramienta indispensable para quienes buscan tomar decisiones basadas en datos
Los ejercicios propuestos, con sus respectivas soluciones, permiten evaluar y consolidar conocimientos de forma autónoma. Diseñado tanto para el aprendizaje autodidacta como para complementar la enseñanza formal, este manual abarca conceptos fundamentales y avanzados, desde la organización de datos y medidas de tendencia central hasta análisis inferencial y aplicación de modelos estadísticos.
La claridad pedagógica del texto garantiza una experiencia de aprendizaje efectiva y accesible, incluso para quienes no cuentan con antecedentes sólidos en estadística. Este libro es el compañero ideal para quienes desean dominar las herramientas estadísticas que son esenciales en la toma de decisiones informadas en entornos empresariales y digitales.

This paper investigates the consequences of natural disasters on annual output and output growth over the period 1995 to 2007 in China. Using data on gross regional product values, we follow the Blundell-Bond System GMM procedure to control for the presence of lagged dependent variables. The results show that the impact of number of people killed on annual output and output growth are both negative. However, the impact of the number of people affected and amount of direct damage on annual output differ from those on output growth and are different for different regions.

Cet article a pour objectif d'étudier l'influence de la libéralisation financière sur la croissance économique en Algérie durant la période1980 à 2013 pour ensuite analyser la relation causale entre la libéralisation financière et la croissance économique. En développant une analyse économétrique, nous sommes parvenus à établir une relation positive entre la libéralisation financière et la croissance économique en Algérie et l'existence d'une relation bidirectionnelle entre les deux variables.

D.P. Singh*, Prafull Kumar and K. Prabakaran*** * Assistant Professor (Agricultural Statistics), S.G. College of Agriculture & Research Station, Jagdalpur (C.G.) ** Assistant Professor (Plant Breeding & Genetics), S.G. College of Agriculture & Research Station, Jagdalpur (C.G.), INDIA. ***Assistant Professor (Agricultural Statistics), Department of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural College &Research Institute, Madurai, INDIA.

This paper analyses the price discovery in the USD/Bitcoin market since Mar -2014 to Nov -2016. The results show a positive relationship between the informational relevance of exchanges and their market shares. Information is mostly transmitted between exchanges within an hour, at least for the main exchanges, although lagged feedbacks occur from the major exchanges. Minor exchanges are merely satellite ones and react to price information with some delay. Bitfinex is the most important exchange: the lagged feedback from this exchange to the market is 18.3%, while the reverse feedback accounts only for 0.6% of the total feedback. Volatility in the major exchanges is the main factor explaining the feedback measures, which sustains the claim that the relative importance of the information -based component of volatility increases with the relative dimension of the exchange.

The paper seeks to provide gender-based empirical evidence and compares wage differential between formal and informal wage workers by estimating a multinomial regression model in Egypt. To this end, the analysis uses a two-step econometric exercise relying on Mincer-type reduced form wage equation to analyze wage differences between informal and formal sectors for both male and female separately in different labour market outcomes including manufacturing and services sector. Therefore, a multinomial logit selection model is used as a first step to eliminate selection bias. Then the wage equation is estimated for four categories of wage. This study is distinguished for taking the market structure into account as a more significant factor in determining gender-wage differential. Hence, using individual-level micro data from Egyptian labour market surveys for 2006, we first find that worker‟s age and education has a significant impact on the probability of moving from informal to forma...

Egypt plays a pivotal role in the security of the Middle East as the doorway to Europe and its military expenditure reflects its involvement in the machinations of such an unstable region, showing considerable variation over the last forty years. These characteristics make it a particularly interesting case study of the determinants of military spending. This paper presents such a study, estimating an econometric model of the Egyptian demand for military spending, taking into account important strategic and political factors. Both economic and strategic factors are found to play a role in determining military burden, with clear positive effects of lagged military burden, suggesting some sort of institutional inertia, plus negative output and net imports effects. The main strategic effect is the impact of Israel's military burden, with no effect for that of the Jordanian and Syrian allies, but the results also suggest that simple arms race relationships are not an adequate representation of the relevant strategic factors.

In many quality control studies the performance of a product or process is usually characterized by a singleresponse variable However, in some applications of quality control, the performance of a product or aprocess can be best characterized by a linear relationship between a response variable and one or more explanatory variables(Noorossana et al., 2011). But, when more than oneexplanatory variables are involved in the profile it may indicate the presence of high collinearity among explanatory variables which is called multicollinearity(Gujarati et al., 2012). It should be noted that if the multicollinearity is neglected during the profile monitoring, then the designed control charts applied in phase II lack the sufficient effectiveness in detecting shifts or out of control signals. In this paper, the effect of the multicollinearity on the monitoring of multiple linear profiles has been studied andsome new type ofExponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) control chartsfor Intercept, Slopes and Mean Squared Error (MSE) byusing Ridge Regression Estimators (RRE) have been proposed in order to provide the solution for multicollinearity. An application of wind tunnel data by NASA Langley Research Centre was used for monitoringprofiles based on proposed EWMA control charts for Intercept, Slopes and MSE. The performance of the proposed EWMA control charts have been evaluated on theAverage Run Length (ARL) criterion,the results indicated that the proposed EWMA control charts obtained from RRE for Intercept, Slopes and MSEoutperformthe existing control charts obtained fromOrdinary Least Squared (OLS) estimator.

In this paper we examine the causal relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Growth of the BRICS countries. We employed Industrial Production Index (IPI) as a measure of Economic Growth. The stationarity of the data series are checked using Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) Test and tested for the existence of co-integration. Johansen Co-integration model found that the Brazil alone co-integrated among the selected countries at levels. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) employed to trace the existence of long run relationship. The results of VECM found that Growth leads FDI bi-directionally for Brazil, Russia and South Africa and FDI leads Growth uni-directionally for India and China respectively.

TEZ7272Tez (Doktora) -- Çukurova Üniversitesi, Adana, 2009.Kaynakça (s.239-254) var.xiv, 266 s. ; 29 cm.In the developing countries, devaluations are used as an political instrument by the governments against balance of payment problems. In accordance with the literature, depreciation of the exchange rate positively affects the economy. However, exchange rate depreciation not only induces the export increase due to decreasing the prices of domestic goods but also increases the cost of producing in the export sector by increasing the input prices of imported goods. In this context, theoretic discussions about contractionary devaluation hypothesis major on supply and demand side channels...Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde devalüasyonlar genellikle ödemeler bilançosu problemleri ile karşı karşıya olan hükümetlerin politika aracı olarak kullanılmıştır. İktisat yazınında geleneksel yaklaşımlar itibari ile döviz kurunun değer kaybetmesi ekonomiyi olumlu etkilemektedir. Bununla birlikte döviz kur...

Hong Kong served as a significant intermediary in the legal transplant of takeover defence regulations from the United Kingdom to mainland China. The article aims to investigate whether the transplanted takeover defence regulation in China is in line with its highly concentrated ownership structure and current model of corporate governance.

El propósito de este trabajo es analizar la relación entre convergencia tradicional y espacial del ingreso según la concentración regional de la producción agrícola de México, destacando los efectos propiciados por el cambio del modelo de desarrollo y gestión, mediante la liberalización y privatización de la economía con su incorporación al TLCAN y su comparación con el periodo 1970-2004. Se identifican y delimitan las regiones agrícolas a las que se aplica la medición econométrica de las hipótesis de convergencia tradicional, espacial y de la concentración económica. Los resultados confirman la tendencia a la disparidad del ingreso de esas regiones y el papel de la concentración económica como determinante de su comportamiento, asociado a la política de apertura de la economía mexicana.

An empirical neoclassical growth model reveals that foreign investment incrementally contributed to the economic transition of 27 countries in Central and Eastern Europe during the transition period 1989 to 2003. The model departs from the theoretical and applied growth literatures by estimating the phase equation of a partial adjustment model of growth that implicitly includes foreign investment. The pooled estimate reveals an early phase of economic growth that will take generations, aside from a few positive outliers, to approach the status of the developed countries.

El traspaso del tipo de cambio hacia precios domesticos en escenarios de dolarizacion impone mayores retos a la politica monetaria. Mas aun, estos retos aumentan cuando las transacciones reales estan dolarizadas y contaminan la formacion de expectativas de inflacion al introducir asimetrias y no linealidades en la relacion entre el tipo de cambio y la inflacion durante periodos de alta depreciacion cambiaria en contraste a episodios de depreciacion moderada y periodos de apreciacion.

The relation between international financial linkages and the synchronization of business cycles is ambiguous. In cross-section, business cycles in countries with large cross-holdings of financial assets are highly correlated; but controlling for country-pair fixed effects, capital tends to flow between economies that are out of sync. This could mean that highly correlated economies tend to be financially integrated because of time-invariant social or cultural commonalities, or that the consequences of financial linkages on cycle synchronization depend on the frequency of observation. This paper introduces a panel estimation where long and short run relationships can be estimated simultaneously. It shows that both low and high frequency changes in financial integration have negative consequences on the international synchronization of cycles over time. Recent vintages of loans only matter in the short run, while older vintages matter in the long run. Interestingly, both effects are driven by bank loans to the non-financial sector, rather than by interbank lending.

This paper derives a method for estimating and testing the Linear Quadratic Adjustment Cost (LQAC) model when the target variable and some of the forcing variables follow I(2) processes. Based on a forward-looking error-correction formulation of the model it is shown how to obtain strongly consistent estimates of the structural long-run parameters and the adjustment cost parameter from both a linear and a non-linear cointegrating regression, where first-differences of the I(2) variables are included as regressors (multicointegration). Further, based on the estimated parameter values, it is shown how to test and evaluate the LQAC model using a VAR approach. In an empirical application using UK money demand data, the non-linear multicointegrating regression delivers an economically plausible estimate of the adjustment cost parameter. However, the exact restrictions implied by the LQAC model under rational expectations are strongly rejected.

It is well-known that if the forcing variable of a present value (PV) model is an integrated process, then the model will give rise to a particular cointegrating restriction. In this paper we demostrate that if the PV relation is exact, such that no additive error term appears in the specification, then te variables will be multicointegrated such that the cumlation of cointegration errors at one level of cointegration will cointegrate with the forcing variable. Multicointegration thus delivers a statistical property of the data that is necessary, though not sufficient, for this class of models to be valido Estimation and inference of the model are discussed and it is shown that, provided me PV relation is exact, the discount factor of the model can be estimated with arate of convergence that is faster than the usual super-consistent rate characterising estimators in the cointegration literature. Finally, the paper is completed with two empirical analyses of PV models using term structure data and farmland data, respectively.

This paper studies the effect of women's leadership on policy outcomes in close races utilizing a rich dataset on Brazilian municipalities. We provide evidence that cities with female mayors have better health outcomes (prenatal visits and percentage of premature births), are awarded more federal discretionary transfers, and are less likely to have administrative irregularities in public procurement practices. Despite these results, male mayors are 20 percentage points more likely to be re-elected than female mayors. We discuss several interpretations of our results, including the role of political patronage and re-election incentives. We find that men are more likely to hire temporary public employees during the electoral year compared to their female counterparts. This effect is driven by incumbents who are eligible for re-election.

My foremost gratitude goes to our almighty God for enabling and guiding me through my academic life. I am grateful to Nairobi University for admitting me to their MBA programme and School of business, MBA teaching staff for upholding academic discipline, and for their vehemence in upholding the academic discipline. My vote of thanks goes to my supervisor; Dr. Kennedy Ogollah, who guided me as I crafted this paper, his suggestions and prompt comments, gave me impetus to refine and produce quality work. I salute all lecturers who relinquished without complain many hours of time with me, which was rightfully theirs. Above all, I owe a lot to my classmates for being with me as we struggled to beat deadlines. I also thank my family members and friends for their immense moral and spiritual support, in particular my wife for walking with me the entire journey. Her understanding and encouragement gave me hope and strength to face the challenges I encountered.

Este estudio se concentra en el sector minero peruano, reconocido como un pilar fundamental de  la  economía  nacional.  Su  propósito  central  radica  en  la  elaboración  de  un  modelo autorregresivo integrado de media móvil(ARIMA, por sus siglas en inglés auto regressive integrated moving average)con el fin de predecir con precisión las exportaciones mineras. Este  enfoque  investigativo  se  sustenta  en  paradigmas  económicos  arraigados,  al  mismo tiempo  que  se  basa  en  una  sólida  revisión  de  literatura  que  confirma su eficacia  en  la predicción de series temporales en diversos contextos económicos. Mediante el uso de datos mensuales provenientes del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP, 2022) y la aplicación del  marco  metodológico  de  Box-Jenkins,  se  llevó  a  cabo  un  análisis  riguroso  para  la identificación, estimación y validación del modelo ARIMA específico (5, 1, 0). La rigurosa validación del modelo destacó su notable capacidad predictiva en el contexto específico de las exportaciones mineras peruanas. Estos hallazgos no solo aportan una comprensión más profunda de la dinámica de dicho sector, sino que también respaldan la utilización del modelo ARIMA como una herramienta fiable para la toma de decisiones políticas y comerciales en el ámbito minero, consolidando su relevancia en la gestión económica del país.

An error correction model is derived from a stochastic dynamic programming problem incorporating rational expectations. A parametric restriction is derived that allows a test for the theoretical proposition that the optimal strategy behind the error correction from entails the failure to asymptotically close the gap between the choice variable and the growing target. This is accomplished by nesting a partial adjustment model with forward‐looking expectations within the error correction paradigm. The counterintuitive behaviour embodied in the error correction model is not supported by the data in the context of a cross‐country comparison of cash balances relationships.

In this paper, we estimate a New Keynesian Phillips Curve, using real marginal costs as a proxy for the output gap, in the same way proposed by Galí & Gertler (1999). Our results for the Brazilian economy were supportive for Calvo´s theory when tests were performed using real marginal costs as proxy for the true output gap. This outcome comes in line with those obtained for the both US and european economy, despite some natural differences in estimated parameters. Here, in most tests, we had reasonable parameter values (i.e. estimates lying in a very acceptable range, accordingly to the theory).
Considering data deficiencies in Brazil, this is something positive. On empirical grounds, one key conclusion is an apparently deep inflationary culture present in Brazil’s economy. Our tests verified that not only inflationary inertia is much larger than in the US and Europe, but also that brazilian price setters tend to change prices much more frequently than american and european counterparts.

Evaluating investments with long-term consequences using discount rates that decline with the time horizon, (Declining Discount Rates or DDRs) means that future welfare changes are of greater consequence in present value terms. Recent work in this area has turned towards operationalising the theory and establishing a schedule of DDRs for use in cost benefit analysis. Using US data we make the following points concerning this transition: i) model selection has important implications for operationalising a theory of DDRs that depends upon uncertainty; ii) misspecification testing naturally leads to employing models that account for changes in the interest rate generating mechanism. Lastly, we provide an analysis of the policy implications of DDRs in the context of climate change for the US and show that the use of a state space model can increase valuations by 150% compared to conventional constant discounting.

In recent times, inflation figures used by policy makers and investors are usually at lag one (i.e. previous month's inflation rate). The reality of the present day situation where changes in the economy increases with a high degree of uncertainty, decision of monetary policy tools requires the use of current figures of macroeconomic indicators such as inflation. This paper, therefore aims at modelling and forecasting Nigeria's inflation rate for the current period, using the Kalman filter methodology. This paper reveals that estimating the Nigerian headline inflation rate using the Kalman filter approach is more efficient than the popular Box-Jenkins ARIMA(0,1,0). The efficiency of the Kalman Filter was mainly as a result of its built in specification for updating the estimation with the latest available information. This is evident the unbiased insample estimation of the headline inflation as well as the significant result of the results of the diagnostics test. Hence, the...

In recent times, inflation figures used by policy makers and investors are usually at lag one (i.e. previous month's inflation rate). The reality of the present day situation where changes in the economy increases with a high degree of uncertainty, decision of monetary policy tools requires the use of current figures of macroeconomic indicators such as inflation. This paper, therefore aims at modelling and forecasting Nigeria's inflation rate for the current period, using the random walk with drift. The result will enable policy makers and investors determine inflation rate ahead of the time the official figures will be released. Our result shows that in the last 12-months, there has been a high degree of correlation (99.8%) between the forecast values and the official data from the National Bureau of Statistics. The results also indicate the need to study the long memory properties of the series.

El presente documento analiza la sostenibilidad de la deuda publica de Guatemala bajo escenarios de incertidumbre. Para el efecto se emplean dos metodos de estimacion basados en Mendoza y Oviedo (2004) y Garcia y Rigobon (2004). El metodo MendozaOviedo permite hacer un analisis de sostenibilidad de la deuda suponiendo que los ingresos futuros del gobierno son inciertos, mientras que el nivel de gasto se mantiene mas o menos constante. Este metodo proporciona tanto el limite natural de la deuda, como la probabilidad de alcanzar dicho limite en el mediano plazo. Por su parte Garcia y Rigobon estudian la sostenibilidad de la deuda desde una perspectiva del manejo de riesgo. En este caso, todas las variables que explican la acumulacion de la deuda publica se consideran inciertas. Al tomar en cuenta estos aspectos la nocion de la sostenibilidad de la deuda se expande a estudiar las propiedades estocasticas de la dinamica de la deuda.

plus other regional and macroeconomic Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr. variables. Predictive accuracy is analyzed using in-sample model simulations. Results Finance, indicate that narrowing yield spreads, real peso appreciation, and oil price declines are

The study examines an assessment of the impacts of interest rate deregulation in enhancing agricultural productivity in Nigeria by employing robust statistical analysis, using ordinary least square method. Data from Central Bank Statistical Bulletin covering the period 1986 to 2010 were also examined and the findings from the study showed that interest rate deregulation has significant and positive impact on agricultural productivity in Nigeria within the period under review. Based on the findings, this study recommends a market determined interest rate as a stimulant in enhancing agricultural productivity. It further suggest that interest rate plays a significant role in enhancing economic activities and as such, monetary authorities should ensure appropriate determination of interest rate level that will break the double edge effect of interest rate on savers and local investors.

The study examines an assessment of the impacts of interest rate deregulation in enhancing agricultural productivity in Nigeria by employing robust statistical analysis, using ordinary least square method. Data from Central Bank Statistical Bulletin covering the period 1986 to 2010 were also examined and the findings from the study showed that interest rate deregulation has significant and positive impact on agricultural productivity in Nigeria within the period under review. Based on the findings, this study recommends a market determined interest rate as a stimulant in enhancing agricultural productivity. It further suggest that interest rate plays a significant role in enhancing economic activities and as such, monetary authorities should ensure appropriate determination of interest rate level that will break the double edge effect of interest rate on savers and local investors.

This study examines the long-run price relationship and the dynamic price transmission among the USA, Germany, and four major Eastern European emerging stock markets, with particular attention to the impact of the 1998 Russian financial crisis. The results show that both the long-run price relationship and the dynamic price transmission were strengthened among these markets after the crisis. The influence of Germany became noticeable on all the Eastern European markets only after the crisis but not before the crisis. We also conduct a rolling generalized VAR analysis to confirm the robustness of the main findings.

Is the wage gap between majors in human arts and other fields caused by the education? If the educational choice is endogenous, the wage gap may instead be caused by selection. We document that individuals' educational choice is correlated with that of older students and by the concentration of women in their high school. Conditional on high school fixed effects, these characteristics are unlikely to affect post-university wages and are plausible instruments for the educational choice. Our 2SLS estimates reveal that the gap in returns to education is negligible, implying that the wage gap is attributable to selection.

This study examines the impact of public debt on economic growth by taking other control variables like institutional credit and commercial electricity consumption. It uses panel data of 14 major (non-special category) States in India for the period 1980-81 to 2013-14. After establishing long-run relationship among the variables, panel long-run estimates are drawn using both DOLS and FMOLS methods. Results from both the methods suggest positive and statistically significant impact of all the variables on economic growth. To test causal relationships among the variables, Dumitrescu-Hurlin pairwise causality test is employed. The results indicate existence of bi-directional causality between public debt and economic growth. One way causality is revealed from economic growth to electricity consumption and from economic growth to credit. The policy implication is that, the sub-national governments in India should not think public debt as a burden but expand it for productive spending to...

The growing integration of economies and societies all over the world has been one of the most discussed topics in international economics for several years. Globalization has many dimensions and with it a variety of social, political and economic implications. This paper examines the causal relationship between globalization and economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2012. Time series data was used and sourced from the CBN Statistical Bulletin and Annual reports. The stationarity of the variables were tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) unit root tests. They were found to be integrated of order I (1). Hence, the null hypotheses of having a unit root were rejected and all the series were used in our cointegration test after first difference. The variables used in the model were GDP, Financial integration, human resource development (HRD) and trade openness (OPEN). Cointegration result indicates the existence of a long run equilibrium relationship...

This paper develops a new method for estimating a demand function and the welfare consequences of price changes. The method is applied to gasoline demand in the U.S. and is applicable to other goods. The method uses shape restrictions derived from economic theory to improve the precision of a nonparametric estimate of the demand function. Using data from the U.S. National Household Travel Survey, we show that the restrictions are consistent with the data on gasoline demand and remove the anomalous behavior of a standard nonparametric estimator. Our approach provides new insights about the price responsiveness of gasoline demand and the way responses vary across the income distribution. We find that price responses vary nonmonotonically with income. In particular, we find that low-and high-income consumers are less responsive to changes in gasoline prices than are middle-income consumers. We find similar results using comparable data from Canada.

The volatility of equity returns for two beverages traded on the Nigerian stock exchange is the subject of this study. The ARCH effect test demonstrated that the two beverages disprove the claim that there is no ARCH effect. According to the preliminary analysis, both beverages were volatile. CGARCH and EGARCH were chosen as the best volatility models for Guinness Nigeria Plc returns and Nigeria Breweries returns, respectively, based on model selection criteria. The EGARCH model, on the other hand, rejected the idea that Guinness Nigeria Plc’s equity returns respond equally to negative and positive shocks of similar magnitude. This study’s findings suggest that the government should be cautious about how it manages inflation and foreign direct investment because they affect the rising stock price. Financial stability will likely be a more direct and explicit part of the macroeconomic responsibilities of central banks in the coming years.

This paper analyzes the life-cycle career costs associated with child rearing and decomposes their effects into unearned wages (as women drop out of the labor market), loss of human capital, and selection into more child-friendly occupations. We estimate a dynamic life-cycle model of fertility, occupational choice, and labor supply using detailed survey and administrative data for Germany for numerous birth cohorts across different regions. We use this model to analyze both the male-female wage gap as it evolves from labor market entry onward and the effect of pro-fertility policies. We show that a substantial portion of the gender wage gap is explainable by realized and expected fertility and that the long-run effect of policies encouraging fertility are considerably lower than the short-run effects typically estimated in the literature.

Avec les objectifs de développement durable (ODD) et de l'Agenda 2063 de l'Union Africaine, le développement financier est aujourd’hui au centre de la croissance pour réduire les inégalités et la pauvreté en Afrique subsaharienne. Dans cette perspective, l’objectif de cet article est d’examiner l'impact du développement financier sur la croissance inclusive, en mettant l'accent sur l'inclusion financière dans les pays de l'UEMOA. En utilisant la méthode de l'Analyse en Composantes Principales (ACP), un indice de croissance inclusive a été calculé. L’étude a utilisé la méthode des triples moindres carrés (TMC) pour estimer un modèle à équations simultanées en panel sur la période 2011 – 2021. Les résultats montrent la résilience du système financier de la région malgré les crises passées et soulignent l'importance de la politique monétaire pour assurer sa stabilité à long terme. L’étude montre également que le développement financier favorise l'accès à des services financiers diversifiés de qualité, ce qui améliore les performances économiques et réduire les inégalités. Par ailleurs l'étude confirme que l'inclusion financière contribue à une réduction des inégalités de revenu, renforçant ainsi la croissance inclusive. En réponse, les politiques devraient promouvoir l'accès aux services financiers pour toutes les couches sociales et intensifier les efforts pour réduire les inégalités. Ces conclusions soulignent les défis à relever pour atteindre l'émergence économique dans les pays de l'UEMOA.

Recent socio-spatial studies point out a number of ongoing trends in the "scale division of labor of the state," including among others, "destatization," "denationalization, and "internationalization." We draw on the literature in public economics to review several approaches to measuring state rescaling. We employ these measures to produce empirical evidence on the extent of state rescaling and its determinants. We find that over the last two decades there has been a world trend towards decentralization while the average government size has not changed.

This study examines the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth in selected MENA countries in the period 2005-2010. The results show that FDI has positive and significant effect on economic growth, so that an increase of 1 percent of its value, growth, 0.03 percent increased.

Can making jobs easier to find and keep raise female employment in societies where gender norms discourage women from working? We report the results of an experiment in Egypt -a country where social norms limiting female employment are widely held, but many women nevertheless look for work and identify lack of childcare as the key barrier to employment -designed to help women with young children obtain employment. The study cross-randomized job matching (making jobs easier to find) and child care subsidies (making jobs easier to keep). Take-up of the child care subsidies was low, and while nearly half of the women who were offered the opportunity signed up for the job-matching services, only some applied to jobs and very few obtained jobs through the services. Neither intervention led to appreciable changes in women's employment or the use of child care. We present evidence that a mismatch between desired non-pecuniary job attributes and the attributes of available jobs limited the impacts of the interventions. While this may be partly due to gender norms, we also document a mismatch between desired and existing job attributes for couples who do not report restrictive norms. Overall, our results demonstrate the limits of female employment interventions that do not address -by either tackling norms or strengthening job amenities -the mismatch between desired and available non-pecuniary job attributes.

In this paper, I present an axiomatic choice theory of Bayesian decision makers and define choice-based subjective probabilities that truly represent Bayesian decision makers' prior and posterior beliefs. I give an example that illustrates the potential consequences of ascribing to a decision maker subjective probabilities that do not represent his beliefs. I argue that no equivalent results may be obtained in theories that invoke Savage's (1954) idea of a state space.

Avec les objectifs de développement durable (ODD) et de l'Agenda 2063 de l'Union Africaine, le développement financier est aujourd’hui au centre de la croissance pour réduire les inégalités et la pauvreté en Afrique subsaharienne. Dans cette perspective, l’objectif de cet article est d’examiner l'impact du développement financier sur la croissance inclusive, en mettant l'accent sur l'inclusion financière dans les pays de l'UEMOA. En utilisant la méthode de l'Analyse en Composantes Principales (ACP), un indice de croissance inclusive a été calculé. L’étude a utilisé la méthode des triples moindres carrés (TMC) pour estimer un modèle à équations simultanées en panel sur la période 2011 – 2021. Les résultats montrent la résilience du système financier de la région malgré les crises passées et soulignent l'importance de la politique monétaire pour assurer sa stabilité à long terme. L’étude montre également que le développement financier favorise l'accès à des services financiers diversifiés de qualité, ce qui améliore les performances économiques et réduire les inégalités. Par ailleurs l'étude confirme que l'inclusion financière contribue à une réduction des inégalités de revenu, renforçant ainsi la croissance inclusive. En réponse, les politiques devraient promouvoir l'accès aux services financiers pour toutes les couches sociales et intensifier les efforts pour réduire les inégalités. Ces conclusions soulignent les défis à relever pour atteindre l'émergence économique dans les pays de l'UEMOA.

El presente documento explora posibles explicaciones a las disparidades en resultados educativos entre regiones (aproximadas a traves de la Evaluacion Censal de Estudiantes). La exploracion sugiere la necesidad de prestar particular atencion a los aspectos vinculados con: (i) las disparidades socio-economicas entre regiones; (ii) el acompanamiento y supervision educativos que parecen tener un impacto importante; (iii) la asociacion entre el punto anterior y los patrones de asentamiento poblacional (problemas de accesibilidad y costos de transaccion asociados al desplazamiento de personas); (iv) el acceso a la educacion inicial; y (v) aspectos de gestion vinculados tanto a los directores de escuela como a las politicas de incentivos implementadas por algunas Direcciones Regionales. Asimismo, se ha encontrado evidencia que sugiere que el valor de la Evaluacion Censal de Estudiantes como forma de aproximarse a los niveles de aprendizaje podria empezar a verse mermado por practicas no d...

Using panel data from 144 countries, this study constructed an inclusive financial evaluation index and depicted the inclusive finance development worldwide under digital empowerment through classification. It reviewed the spatial effect of financial inclusion in developed and developing countries by throwing light on demand, supply, and regulatory factors via the spatial Durbin model. The mediating and regulatory effects model examines the transmission mechanism of financial inclusion with a focus on financial literacy, scientific and technological levels, and regulatory quality. The results show that the level of financial inclusion in developed countries is significantly higher than in developing countries. The economic level of developed countries positively impacts financial inclusion in their countries and neighbouring ones. Enhancing financial literacy, science and technological level, and supervision quality improve the development of inclusive finance. While the economic level and urbanization rate in developing countries inhibit the development of financial inclusion, countries with lower economic development and urbanization rates have a greater incentive to develop digital financial inclusion. The improved economic development in developing countries favours financial inclusion in countries nearby. Moreover, financial literacy plays a positive moderating role in the effect of digital finance on financial inclusion. The technology level can exert a transmission effect on financial inclusion through an elevated level of digital finance. The impact of regulatory quality on financial inclusion can be conveyede by creating a stable economic and financial environment and improving economic development levels. This study expands the theoretical research on constructing an inclusive finance evaluation system and its impact mechanism. It provides essential decision-making references for governments, relevant decision-making departments, financial institutions and financial technology enterprises to develop inclusive finance.

This study examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI), trade, and various macroeconomic factors on GDP growth in China over the period 1982-2022. By Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research investigates the dynamic interplay between GDP growth and fifteen independent variables, including FDI, exports, trade, total debt, and real interest rates. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test confirms the stationarity of the data at first difference. The ARDL model results indicate significant long-term impacts of some variables, particularly the current account balance, exports, and merchandise trade. Short-run dynamics revealed that increased FDI and real interest rates positively affect GDP growth, while increased debt, exports, and final consumption have negative effects. The ARDL bounds test confirms a long-run relationship among the variables. Diagnostic checks show no issues with normality, heteroskedasticity, or serial correlation. This comprehensive analysis provides valuable evidence for policymakers to formulate effective economic policies, promoting sustained growth and stability in China's rapidly evolving economy.