Energy Challenges for the 21st Century / Hanson Lecture 20

2004

Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 2019

In recent years the fluctuation in fuel prices coincided with the global economic depression of 2008, further studies indicate that when production of crude oil is more than the demand of the crude oil, crude cost would reduce whereas if there is little supply of crude oil and there is growing demand of crude oil the cost of crude would increase. In this review we explore the various conditions that influence the fluctuation of crude oil, the impact this conditions have to the global price of crude oil and it relation to developments of certain economies as specified. There was found to be correlation between crude oil price increase and an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) of developing oil producing nations also there was found to be a fall once there is a reduction in crude price. This is dependent on if the nation in question is crude oil based economy whereas if the economy in question is more diverse its effect on the GDP wouldn’t be as pronounced.

Journal of Physics: Conference Series, 2019

In recent years the fluctuation in fuel prices coincided with the global economic depression of 2008, further studies indicate that when production of crude oil is more than the demand of the crude oil, crude cost would reduce whereas if there is little supply of crude oil and there is growing demand of crude oil the cost of crude would increase. In this review we explore the various conditions that influence the fluctuation of crude oil, the impact this conditions have to the global price of crude oil and it relation to developments of certain economies as specified. There was found to be correlation between crude oil price increase and an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) of developing oil producing nations also there was found to be a fall once there is a reduction in crude price. This is dependent on if the nation in question is crude oil based economy whereas if the economy in question is more diverse its effect on the GDP wouldn't be as pronounced.

2016

In the second half of 2014, oil prices experienced a sharp decline, falling more than 50 per cent between June 2014 and January 2015. A cursory glance at this oil price crash suggests similarities to developments in 1986, when the price of oil declined by more than 50 per cent, initiating an episode of relatively low oil prices that lasted for more than a decade. This analytical note compares the 1986 price decline with the current episode more closely, and its key findings suggest important differences. While oil demand had been falling in the beginning of the 1980s, demand growth currently is being sustained by emerging economies and is projected to be more stable. Also, spare production capacity is significantly smaller today. Due to higher decline rates and shorter investment cycles of unconventional production, current supply is expected to adjust faster to low prices and reductions in investment spending. As long as oil demand from emerging economies remains robust, increases ...

Recent years were affected by global macroeconomic uncertainties,

Energy Policy, 2010

The assessment of future global oil production presented in the IEA"s World Energy Outlook 2008 (WEO 2008) is divided into 6 fractions; four relate to crude oil, one to non-conventional oil and the final fraction is natural-gas-liquids (NGL). Using the production parameter, depletionrate-of-recoverable-resources, we have analyzed the four crude oil fractions and found that the 75 Mb/d of crude oil production forecast for the year 2030 appears significantly overstated, and is more likely to be in the region of 55 Mb/d. Moreover, analysis of the other fractions strongly suggests lower than expected production levels. In total, our analysis points to a world oil supply in 2030 of 75 Mb/d, some 26 Mb/d lower than the IEA predicts.

Review

ETWEEN the end of 1985 and the second quarter of 1986, oil prices fell by about half, the reverse of the near doubling of oil prices in both 1973-74 and in 1979-81.' This decline prompted a renewed debate about the effects of oil price changes-and whether the effects of oil price declines are simply the reverse of oil price increases, that is, whether the effects are symmetric. This article examines these issues. A theoretical analysis of oil and energy price effects on the economy is presented first, along with some evidence on the actual effects of oil price increases on the United States and other countries. While the theory indicates symmetric effects, several arguments suggest the 1986 oil price decline will not have equal and opposite, or symmetric, effects on the economy. THE THEORETICAL CHANNELS OF OIL PRICE EFFECTS There are several channels through which an oil price 'shock," an unanticipated change in the level of