International Macroeconomics

Foreign capital and exchange earnings are required for economic growth and development. Foreign capital inflows received by the economies are distributed between non-tradable and tradable sectors. Yet, appreciation of real effective exchange rate (REER) might be instigated through an increase in the price of non-tradable commodities. Appreciation in the real exchange rate thus leads to loss of competitiveness, which in turn contract exports. Within this perspective, this paper investigates variations in competitiveness by considering the effects of different types of capital flows and some policy variables on the REER, for the period 1976-2015. Existing literature confirms positive effect of capital flows on the REER. By applying ARDL cointegration technique, this paper predicated that official development assistance, investment income, increased remittances, and other foreign investments lead to real appreciation whereas increased government expenditures cause a real depreciation. Terms of trade, trade opennesss, and foreign direct investment are identified to be statistically insignificant. Findings of the study drawn from the analysis of the influence of capital inflows and control variables have important implications for policies in the areas of domestic demand management, exchange rate management, export promotion, etc.

The term Illicit Financial Flows (IFFs) refers to cross-border capital
movements for the purposes of concealing illegal activities and evad
ing taxes. It is on of the major challenges developing countries face.
Illicit flows deprive developing countries of critically needed re
sources for investment thereby hampering socio-economic and polit
ical development.
This research analyses Uganda’s financial regulatory system and
shows that although it lays a foundation in the fight against IFFs, the
system cannot effectively control IFFs due to underlying weaknesses.
The research also looks at best practice from selected jurisdictions
from which Uganda could draw useful lessons

Özet: Arjantin ve Türkiye çok yüksek düzeylere ulaşan enflasyon oranlarını kontrol edebilmek amacıyla son dönemde neoliberal (ortodoks) dezenflasyon politikaları uygulamaya başlamışlardır. Bu iki ülkede uygulanan neoliberal dezenflasyon politikaları arasında önemli benzerlikler bulunmasına karşın, bazı farklılıklar bulunmaktadır. Kasım 2023’de liberteryen (anarko-kapitalist) iktisatçı Javier Milei Arjantin’de iktidara geldi. Milei hükümeti, neoliberal ve liberterven ilkelere dayalı sıkı bir para politikası ve ‘şok terapi’ mali reform stratejisini uygulamaya koydu. Milei’nin iktisadi ve siyasal görüşlerinin entelektüel kökenleri radikal liberteryen iktisatçı Murray Rothbard’a dayanmaktadır. Murray Rothbard, liberteryenler ve paleo-muhafazakarları birleştirmeyi amaçlayan ve ‘paleo-liberteryen’ olarak adlandırılan sağ-liberteryen siyasal hareketin entelektüel öncülerindendir. Rothbard’ın ‘paleo-liberteryen’ (sağ popülist) siyasal görüşlerinin günümüzde Donald Trump ve Javier Milei gibi siyasal liderler üzerinde önemli ideolojik etkileri olduğu görülmektedir. Arjantin’de uygulanan dezenflasyon politikasının Türkiye’de uygulanan programdan en önemli farkı sıkı ve sert mali disipline (kamu bütçe disiplini) dayanmasıdır. Milei hükümeti bütçe açıklarını azaltma konusunda başarılı olmasına karşın, bu başarı yüksek gelir gruplarının vergilenmesi ile değil, nüfusun büyük bölümünün refahının (reel gelirlerinin) büyük oranda düşürülmesi ile sağlanmıştır. Diğer yandan, Arjantin’de para otoritesi daha çok parasal hedeflemeye yönelirken, yüksek faiz ödemelerinin para arzı artışına neden olmasından dolayı seri biçimde faiz indirimlerine gitmiştir.

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye için döviz kuru, ithalat ve ihracat arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini araştırmaktır. Bu amaçla, veriler Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sisteminden elde edilmiştir. Araştırma dönemi üçer aylık 1989-2016 yıllarıdır. Analizde Toda-Yamamoto (1995) nedensellik testi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre,istatistiksel olarakdeğişkenler arasında anlamlı bir nedensellik ilişkisi yoktur.

This study investigates unemployment trap in Uganda by analyzing historical trends and forecasting unemployment dynamics from 1991 to 2022 using a quantitative approach based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling. Time-series data from the World Bank is employed, with unemployment, total (% of total labor force) serving as the dependent variable, while autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) components act as independent variables. Parameter estimation is conducted using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), revealing that MA(8) coefficient (0.6806) is positive and statistically significant, indicating a strong influence of past unemployment shocks on current levels. The estimated ARIMA (4, 1, 8) model is found to be covariance stationary and invertible, confirming its robustness for forecasting unemployment trends. Projections from the model suggest a persistent unemployment trap, with unemployment rates expected to fluctuate between 3.04% in 2023 and approximately 2.96% by 2042. These findings highlight a structural unemployment challenge in Uganda, with rates stabilizing at approximately 3%, signaling limited progress in addressing unemployment over time. The study recommends targeted policy interventions, including skills development programs, entrepreneurship promotion, and labor market reforms to stimulate job creation and reduce structural unemployment.

This study examines trends in Nigeria's population dynamics from 1962 to 2022, utilizing autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling approach. Time-series data, sourced from the World Bank, uses population density (people per square kilometer) as the dependent variable, with autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) components as independent variables. Parameter estimation through generalized least squares (GLS) reveals positive and statistically significant coefficients for AR(1) and MA(3), at 0.4339 and 0.3173, respectively. These findings indicate persistent short-term dependencies and cyclical patterns in population growth. Projections based on the ARIMA (1, 2, 3) model suggest a sustained average annual increase of 6.81% in population density from 2023 to 2042. Policymakers should utilize these insights for urban development, infrastructure, and resource management, ensuring sustainable growth amid rising population pressures.

The paradox of inflation-targeting refers to persistence of high inflation rates despite the implementation of prudent monetary policies aimed at price stabilization. This study investigates this paradox in Nigeria by analyzing historical inflation data from 1960 to 2023 using an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) modeling approach. Utilizing time-series data from the World Bank, inflation (consumer prices, annual %) is modeled as the dependent variable, while autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) components serve as independent variables. Parameter estimation using conditional least squares (CLS) reveals that the AR(1) coefficient (0.817480) is positive and statistically significant, indicating that approximately 82% of past inflationary effects persist over time. Meanwhile, the MA(2) coefficient (-0.448447) is negative and statistically significant, suggesting that about 45% of past shocks contribute to short-term inflation adjustments. The estimated ARMA(1,2) model is found to be covariance stationary and invertible, confirming its reliability for forecasting inflation trends. Projections indicate a gradual decline in inflation, with rates expected to decrease from 22.7% in 2024 to approximately 17.7% by 2045. However, this reduction remains marginal, as inflation rates persist in double digits, highlighting the limitations of inflationtargeting policies in achieving long-term price stability. The study recommends integrating inflation-targeting with broader fiscal and structural reforms to enhance monetary policy effectiveness and ensure sustainable inflation control in Nigeria.

This study investigates the relationship between government spending and trade balance in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2005 to 2022 using an autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model and balanced World Bank panel data. The findings reveal a significant short-and long-term association between the variables. A 10% rise in government spending results in a 6.3% short-term trade balance decline but a 30.9% improvement in the long run, illustrating a J-curve effect. Cointegration and Granger causality tests confirm a stable, causal relationship. The study recommends strategic spending policies to mitigate short-term deficits and boost long-term trade performance.

Agradeço em primeiro lugar a Deus por toda força concedida a mim ao longo desse período. À minha família, em especial meus queridos pais, Lucio e Margareth e meu irmão/ amigo, Danyllo. Obrigado por todo apoio, carinho e atenção ao longo dessa caminhada. À Juliana, minha companheira, amiga e colega de trabalho pelo apoio durante esse período de escrita da tese. Ao meu orientador, André Moreira Cunha, pelos ensinamentos, paciência e confiança no meu trabalho. Aos Professores do PPGE-UFRGS, em especial, Marcelo Milan pela disposição de sempre. À secretaria do PPGE-UFRGS e à equipe da Biblioteca da FCE.

This study investigates the relationship between foreign exchange rates and trade balance in Sub-Saharan Africa from 2005 to 2022 using secondary World Bank data and an Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model. Trade balance serves as the dependent variable, while foreign exchange rates is the independent variable. Results indicate a statistically significant relationship, reflecting both short-and long-run dynamics. In the short term, a 10% increase in exchange rates worsens the trade balance by 7.5% (coefficient =-0.7543). However, the long-run coefficient (0.4580) shows a 4.6% improvement, demonstrating a J-curve adjustment pattern. Cointegration test confirm a longterm equilibrium between the variables. Model selection criteria and a low standard error further validate the model's robustness. Policy recommendations include prudent monetary and fiscal strategies to manage exchange rates and trade deficits. Short-term trade policies, like targeted subsidies can mitigate immediate impacts, while enhancing export competitiveness and regional trade integration supports long-term improvements.

The purpose of this study was to analyze the business income of palm sugar in Tanjung Seloka Utara Village, Pulau Laut Selatan Subdistrict, Kotabaru Regency. The type of research used is quantitative descriptive, with sampling using purposive sampling. The results of this study indicate that the palm sugar business has a R / C value of more than 1, this indicates that every Rp. 1, -the costs incurred by each business owner were able to give a refund in the

Data statistik Perkebunan Unggulan Nasional 2021-2023 menunjukkan perkebunan kelapa sawit tersebar di Indonesia. Salah satu wilyah penghasil kelapa sawit di Pulau Sumatera adalah Provinsi Sumatera Selatan. Data produktivitas perkebunan kelapa sawit di Provinsi Sumatera Selatan di Kabupaten Penukal Abab Lematang Ilir (Pali) menunjukkan produktivitas yang baik. Produktivitas akan berpengaruh pada pendapatan dan pengeluaran petani. Tingkat kesejahteraan petani dapat dilihat dari proporsi pengeluaran nya, baik pada pengeluaran pangan maupun pengeluaran bukan pangan/ non-pangan. Mendeterminasi proporsi pengeluaran pangan dan bukan pangan serta menganalisis tingkat kesejahteraan petani plasma kelapa sawit di Kecamatan Abab Kabupaten Penukal Abab Lematang Ilir adalah tujuan penelitian ini. Penelitian ini mengunakan metode survei. sumber data menggunakan data primer dan sekunder, melibatkan 100 petani sebagai responden. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan pengeluaran untuk konsumsi pangan cenderung lebih tinggi dari pada pengeluaran konsumsi non-pangan yang menunjukkan bahwa kesejahteraan sedang.

This study examines the relationship between capital budgeting and economic growth in Pakistan (1980-2022), focusing on capital expenditure, interest rates, inflation, FDI, and exchange rate regimes using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. It explores investment strategies, economic challenges, and policy implications.

Cette étude s’intéresse à l’optimisation des prix à la production en Côte d’Ivoire, en particulier dans les secteurs agricoles stratégiques tels que le cacao et le café. La recherche adopte une approche multidimensionnelle, intégrant des théories d’équilibre général, des modèles économétriques et des méthodes stochastiques. Nous analysons l’impact des prix à la production sur les prix à l’exportation et la balance commerciale. Nos résultats suggèrent qu’une stratégie de prix optimale renforce la compétitivité des produits agricoles ivoiriens, améliore la rentabilité des producteurs et renforce la stabilité macroéconomique du pays. L’étude fournit également des recommandations politiques pour les mécanismes de stabilisation des prix, le soutien institutionnel et les outils de gestion des risques afin d’atténuer la volatilité des marchés

Translacja jest w nauce pojęciem wieloznacznym i zazwyczaj oznacza najogólniej rzecz biorąc swego rodzaju przekształcenie, lecz w ekonomii, a zwłaszcza w rachunkowości i finansach definiowana jest jako proces polegający na przeliczeniu wartości z jednej waluty na drugą. Może to być na przykład cena dóbr lub usług, wynagrodzenie lub PKB. Obecnie translacja, zwana też czasami konwersją wartości, oparta jest na rynkowym kursie walutowym, jako relacji pomiędzy dwiema jednostkami pieniężnymi [Pilbeam, 2006]. Taką definicję przyjmuje się również w podręcznikach do zaawansowanej rachunkowości czy finansów [Meigs, Meigs, 1986]. W praktyce kurs walutowy realizowany jest w transakcjach gospodarczych międzynarodowych, w wymianie walut, na przykład w kantorze wymiany walut, gdzie za 3 złote 50 groszy można kupić 1 dolara. Praktyka translacji dotyczy obecnie kilku głównych obszarów. Zauważyć można, że w porównaniach międzynarodowych wynagradzania pracowników często używa się translacji bezpośrednio za pomocą kursu walutowego. Tego typu porównania ukazały się ostatnio w "Gazecie Wyborczej". Autorzy publikacji "Ile zarabia Polak i dlaczego tak mało?" wskazują na zbyt niski poziom wynagrodzeń między innymi w Polsce, w stosunku do niemieckiej płacy [Bojanowski, Popiołek, 2011]. Zdaniem autorów poziom wynagrodzeń wyrówna się w przyszłości. Stosownie do przyjętej koncepcji autorzy doszukują się przyczyn tego stanu rzeczy w wydajności pracy, która jest niższa w Polsce niż w Niemczech. Na bazie teorii produktywności pracy należy zastanowić się, czy taki wniosek jest właściwy i teoretycznie uzasadniony. Jak wskazuje praktyka translacji, kurs walutowy używany bezpośrednio w konwersji cen dóbr i usług również nie przynosi rzetelnych rezultatów. Potwierdzenie tej tezy znaleźć można również w prasie niemieckiej. W gazecie "Deutsche Welle" w artykule pod tytułem "Polska już nie jest zagłębiem niższych cen" wskazuje się na nieopłacalność turystyki zakupowej do Polski [(http)]. Na podstawie zastosowania bieżącego, rynkowego kursu walutowego

This study investigates the impact of foreign remittances on economic growth in Bangladesh using annual time-series data from 1999 to 2023. Employing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test to assess stationarity and an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model on firstdifferenced variables, the analysis reveals that remittances have a statistically significant and positive effect on short-run GDP growth. Capital formation and consumption expenditure also positively influence economic growth, while inflation is found to have a negative impact. The results suggest that remittances can play a vital role in supporting Bangladesh's macroeconomic development, particularly when effectively channelled into productive uses. The study highlights the need for sound macroeconomic policies to complement remittance inflows and encourages further efforts to enhance financial inclusion and formal remittance channels. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers aiming to leverage remittance inflows for sustainable economic growth.

Institutional quality and good governance are considered important in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) to determine the role of the institutional quality and governance as an incentive for FDI inflow. It is arbitrary to link institutions and economic growth as attractive indicators of FDI inflow in different countries. This study uses a two-step system GMM model and examines the impact of institutional quality on FDI in the global panel, developed, developing, and Asian countries from 2002 to 2019. The results suggest that only regulatory quality significantly increases FDI inflow while other institutional indicators along the institutional quality index are negatively associated with FDI inflow in the global panel. In case of developed countries, control of corruption and regulatory quality negatively affect FDI inflow while all other indicators have no effect on FDI inflow. In case of developing countries, control of corruption, political stability, and voice and accountability significantly attract FDI inflow, while government effectiveness, regulatory quality, political system, and institutional quality index significantly reduce FDI inflow. In case of Asian countries, all institutional quality indicators have a significant and positive effect on FDI inflows, except the control of corruption, which reduces FDI inflow. The results of this study have significant policy implications for the countries in the sample in the context of institutional quality indicators and FDI inflow.

La crise des subprimes, déclenchée en 2007 aux États-Unis, constitue l'un des épisodes les plus marquants de l'histoire financière contemporaine. Au-delà de son origine immobilière, elle révèle des failles structurelles dans la régulation des marchés, dans la titrisation des actifs, ainsi que dans le comportement des agents économiques. Cet article se propose d'analyser les causes profondes de la crise, ses mécanismes de propagation et ses conséquences à la fois économiques, sociales et politiques à l'échelle mondiale.

Rotating Savings and Credit Associations (RoSCAs) are a micro-credit scheme that enables lowincome groups to access financial services. RoSCAs are informal financial institutions that serve
many people's financial needs, especially in developing countries. There is an increasing need for
RoSCAs, especially among small business owners, as they provide an alternative to raise funds to
support their business operations since this group would typically face difficulties obtaining financing
from the formal banking sector. This study examined the impact of RoSCAs on the development of
small businesses in the Gbongo market, Bo City-Southern Sierra Leone. This study applied a mixed
research design and explored primary and secondary data sources. A well-designed questionnaire was
administered to 120 small business owners, who were selected using a simple random sampling
technique in addition to the focus group discussions held with the heads of those schemes in the
market area. The ensuing data was analyzed using simple statistical packages like Excel and
frequency counts, and the result was presented in charts. This study found that the practice of
RoSCAs has served as a mechanism for savings, provides capital with less strings attached,
strengthens networks, helps to accumulate assets and eventually alleviates financial exclusion by
enhancing the involvement of small business owners in financial activities and economic development.
Therefore, it would be necessary for policymakers to integrate RoSCAs in the economic policies for
the pivotal role they play in economic development, improving financial inclusion and hence aiding in
poverty reduction.
Keywords: RoSCA, Osusu, Development, Small Businesses, Sierra Leone

Dolayısıyla bu çalışmada Türkiye için yanlış dengelenme, satın alma gücü paritesi çerçevesinde, birinci nesil birim kök testleri, yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleri ve doğrusal olmayan birim kök testleri aracılığıyla analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular Türkiye için hesaplanan reel döviz kuru serilerinin seviyelerinde durağan olmadığını ve dolayısıyla reel döviz kurlarının yanlış dengelendiğini göstermektedir.

The results here can be simply generalized to the entire hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) family of preferences. However, analytic results already exist for the most interesting representatives of the HARA class not covered here, i.e. constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) (Caballero (1990)) and quadratic utility, although the preference shocks have to be turned off (m t = 0) in the case of CARA utility.

The competing theories of the macroeconomic trilemma and dilemma are empirically tested for South Africa. The empirical findings show evidence of the trilemma theory being applicable to South Africa, supporting the country's ability to maintain monetary independence (MI). An empirical puzzle, however, emerged as South Africa's MI index decreased during the country's 2000–2014 inflation‐targeting period. A possible explanation, and subject for further research, is that the increasing opening of South Africa to international flows since 1995 may have caused South Africa to be more exposed to international business cycles and shocks, resulting in a reduction in measured MI.

This research was conducted in home industry of "Sumber Urip Jamur" in Palu City Central Sulawesi on April 2015. The aim of the research is to know the feasibility of oyster mushroom cultivation in "Sumber Urip Jamur" in Palu. The determination of respondent has done as purposive method. The number of respondents were 3 respondents, they are the head and the exchequer of "Sumber Urip Jamur". Data of this research comprise of primary and secondary data. The data were analyzed using business feasibility analysis of ROI and JWPM. The result of this research showed that the income of oyster mushroom is Rp. 6.000.000 and the profit is Rp. 2.719.757 and ROI produced is 19%. The business capital will return after 2,74 year of 17 months because the production of oyster mushroom improved from 6 to 10 kg per day while the payback period is 2,74. Business of oyster mushroom is feasible cultivated with range of score of R/C of 1,82.

CADERNOS do DESENVOLVIMENTO, Rio de Janeiro, v. 12, n. 21, pp. 71-97, jul.-dez. 2017 | 71 3. Dados coletados por Carneiro (2002) mostram que diversos países "em desenvolvimento" ficaram excluídos dos primeiros anos da globalização financeira dos anos 1980, visto que os fluxos de portfólio, que passaram a ganhar protagonismo nas finanças globalizadas se dirigiram essencialmente para países desenvolvidos. 4. Contudo, foge do escopo deste artigo abordar a segunda perspectiva com profundidade. A década perdida: da restrição externa ao declínio do nacional-desenvolvimentismo brasileiro CADERNOS do DESENVOLVIMENTO | 73 irá abordar brevemente algumas reformas institucionais adotadas pelo Estado brasileiro ao longo da década de 1980, as quais devem ser analisadas em conjunto com as decisões de política econômica implementadas no mesmo período. Por fim, serão sintetizadas as principais considerações finais do artigo.

Reel döviz kurunun durağan olması, diğer bir deyişle birim kök içermemesi iktisatta sıkça tartışılan ve güncelliğini koruyan satın alma gücü paritesi (SGP) teorisinin geçerliliğini ölçmekte kullanılan oldukça pratik bir yoldur. Reel döviz kurunun durağanlığı ile sabit kaldığı ve ilgili seriye gelen şokların geçici olduğu anlaşılmaktadır. Birim kök sürece sahip olmayan reel döviz kuru serisi SGP teorisinin geçerliliğini garanti etmekte ve para politikası kararlarının SGP'nin geçerliliğinin de göz önüne alınarak uygulanmasına katkı sağlamaktadır. Bu çalışmada SGP teorisi Türkiye için 1994:1-2019:1 dönemi aylık verileriyle test edilmektedir. Analiz hem geleneksel hem de kırılmalı durağanlık testleri kullanılarak yapılmış ve her iki durumda da ilgili dönemde Türkiye'de satın alma gücü paritesinin geçerli olmadığı sonucu elde edilmiştir.

La inflación es uno de los fenómenos económicos más impopulares en la vida moderna para la opinión pública, demostrado por las encuestas y por los resultados electorales adversos a los gobiernos, que los electores furiosos y disgustados responsabilizaban por el crecimiento constante de los precios, en muchos países. El rechazo a la inflación no sólo tiene razones económicas, en su significado estrecho, sino también por el sentido de inseguridad y de indefensión que sufren los individuos, especialmente los de edad mayor, cuando estos procesos se convierten en parte de su vida diaria, minando no sólo sus ingresos –fijos para los jubilados y rentistas- sino también la cohesión social frente al Estado. Por otro lado, los inversionistas no se mueven a gusto en un ambiente inflacionario no esperado, y que no pueden incorporar en sus previsiones y en sus precios, causando así una ineficiente asignación de los recursos que retarda el crecimiento.

This paper provides the most comprehensive empirical study of the effectiveness of macroprudential instruments to date. Using data from 49 countries, the paper evaluates the effectiveness of macroprudential instruments in reducing systemic risk over time and across institutions and markets. The analysis suggests that many of the most frequently used instruments are effective in reducing pro-cyclicality and the effectiveness is sensitive to the type of shock facing the financial sector. Based on these findings, the paper identifies conditions under which macroprudential policy is most likely to be effective, as well as conditions under which it may have little impact.

Abstract: Conventional wisdom is that some capital flows are inherently more volatile than others. However, our investigation of the statistical properties of these flows shows that no regular relationships exist to suggest that the particular composition of capital flows can ...

Domestic sovereign bonds have become a growing source of government financing in Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs). This paper investigates the role of fiscal policies in determining domestic bond yields, and how this relationship varies depending on the debt structure. Specifically, the analysis highlights the interaction of fiscal policy with banking sector leverage and foreign investor holdings for government debt. A 1 percentage point increase in expected primary deficits results in a persistent increase in 10-year domestic bond yield by around 36 basis points over 2.5 years, with larger effects observed during the COVID-19 pandemic. This contrasts with external bond spreads which are more sensitive to external and global risk factors. The greater the reliance on domestic banks for deficit financing, the stronger the impact of loose fiscal policy on domestic bond yields. The shift in domestic debt financing towards domestic banks after the pandemic implies that sovereign yields have been increasingly interlinked with domestic banks' investment behavior implying potential financial sector risks in major EMDEs.

This work proposes a new approach to measuring the creation of finance
in excess of the quantity needed by the real economy, and to assess how
finance is distributed across sectors. The methodology is validated by
examining yearly changes that occurred in sectorial balance sh

In February of 2007 the British bank HSBC became the first to announce it had suffered major financial losses from the collapse of the subprime mortgage industry in the United States (USA). By September of 2007, another British bank Northern Rock started to run out of money as customers flocked to withdraw their funds (what economists call a "bank run"). These banks, like many others, had become intricately linked together with the investment funds that had financed the real-estate boom in the United States. The situation had been compounded by risky investments, like collateralized debt obligations, that underpinned mortgages and transnational credit flows. Over the previous thirty years of globalization the international financial system had geographically expanded and grown in size and thus ever more complex as more and more countries liberalized trade and opened their borders to flows of foreign investments. The financial crisis was shaped by imbalances in these international flows of investments, and by the unwinding of the Bretton Woods System that established the United States at the top of the international financial system by having mandated the dollar as the world's international reserve currency. The onset of neoliberal deregulation policies in the 1980s and 1990s helped foster further transnational movements of investments to the United States and its large liquid markets, which helped keep interest rates in the United States low. This cheap credit helped fuel the housing construction boom in the United States that combined with deregulation to foster the subprime mortgage industry (see Chapter 10).

The modern economy is based on technological innovation, which ensures the competitiveness and stability of countries. Investments in technologies such as artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet of Things, Big Data and other Industry 4.0/5.0 technologies lead to economic growth, job creation and an improved quality of life. Countries that support these sectors become less dependent on external economic and financial crises, increasing their economic and strategic security. A long-term growth policy focusing on new technologies is crucial for building an economically strong economy that is resistant to various external factors and for ensuring the welfare and multifaceted security of citizens.

Sektor Integratif: Memahami Elemen Pertanian Berkelanjutan‖ dapat diselesaikan dengan baik. Buku ini hadir sebagai jawaban atas tantangan global dalam memahami elemen- elemen untuk mendukung tercapainya pemahaman terhadap komponen lingkungan, ekonomi, dan sosial dalam praktik pertanian berkelanjutan yang semakin kompleks. Oleh karena itu, sektor pertanian harus mampu berkembang dengan pendekatan yang integratif dan inovatif. Buku ini mengutarakan elemen terkecil dari teknologi perbanyakan tanaman, pengelolaan lahan marginal khas rawa, pemanfaatan lahan marginal untuk perkebunan, konsep ekonomi biru dalam pemanfaatan lahan hingga strategi pembangunan pertanian berkelanjutan agar menjadi sistem agrikultur yang tangguh. Kami juga menyoroti pentingnya kolaborasi lintas sektor dalam menciptakan sinergi antara pertanian, perikanan, peternakan, dan kehutanan sebagai upaya untuk mengoptimalkan fungsi ekosistem.

This research aims to explore and find the determinant factors as it is important for the development of group UPPKS management in Kecamatan Sukarami Palembang through a quntitative descriptive approach.The number of respondents was limited for 7 groups that are still active in Kecamatan Sukarami. The result showed that the cooperative effort influence to productivity. The findings of this study indicate that the lack of funds/start-up capital has not gained sufficient leverage; the absence of other sources of funding, in fact, almost all are individual business, so that managed such as savings and credit groups. Growing effort is being supported by additional capital that sought its own members, as well as the selection of profitable business activities. Group leader and members favored form of technical training, certain items are more salable. More individual businesses selling food and beverages are for their money-faster turnaround, rest handicraft products do not sell quickly,...

This paper attempts to analyze the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the economic development of East Asian countries during the 1986-2006 period, and to determine the links between the FDI-led economic development with changes in exchange rate arrangements. It is found that as successful FDI-based industrialization brought about enormous changes in industrial structure and economic development, most East Asian countries tended to change to more flexible exchange rate arrangements. The changes in exchange rate arrangements may be a meaningful indicator for the exchange rate policy in Vietnam if it continues to follow the East Asian economic development model.

We study the dynamics of price indices for major U.S. cities using panel econometric methods and find that relative price levels among cities mean revert at an exceptionally slow rate. In a panel of 19 cities from 1918 to 1995, we estimate the half-life of convergence to be approximately nine years. The surprisingly slow rate of convergence can be explained by a combination of the presence of transportation costs, differential speeds of adjustment to small and large shocks, and the inclusion of nontraded goods prices in the overall price index.

Research aims to determine impact of climate change as among the factors which affect the income palm sugar Farmers located in Karanggadung Village Petanahan Sub District and Rangkah Village Buayan Subdistrict, Kebumen District.Research include descriptive through surveys use of cluster sampling method. Total of 200 palm sugar Farmers located in Karanggadung Village Petanahan Subdistrict and Rangkah Village Buayan Subdistrict, Kebumen District became sample. Data analysis technique used for hypothesis test are Multiple Linear Regression, agribusiness analysis and descriptive statistics analysis.Results of analysis by use of Multiple Linear Regression showed that the independent variables age, production, business cost and The Man Working (HOK) simultaneously have a significant and positive impact on the income palm sugar Farmers. Results of palm sugar agribusiness analysis can be said sufficient daily for palm sugar Farmers located in Karanggadung Village, Petanahan Subdistrict and ...

Wars are not just fought with weapons but with resources. This paper presents a macroeconomic model of the Russia-Ukraine war, analyzing Ukraine’s resistance function and Russia’s territorial demand curve. While Western military aid prolongs Ukraine’s resilience, Russia’s shift to a war economy accelerates its territorial ambitions, potentially shortening the war but increasing Ukraine’s losses. The findings highlight the economic limits of prolonged resistance and question whether earlier negotiations could have reduced devastation. Ultimately, war is not won by firepower alone but by economic endurance.

Keywords: Ukraine war, war economy, military aid, economic resilience, territorial conflict, strategic endurance, macroeconomic modeling.

In dieser Studie werden die Wachstumsaussichten fur den Bankensektor in den ostlichen Nachbarlandern und in Zentralasien untersucht und die Schwierigkeiten erortert, die sich bei der Schaffung eines gunstigen Umfelds fur die Entwicklung des privaten Sektors ergeben. Der Bankensektor spielt dabei eine Schlusselrolle, da ein rasches Wachstum und die wirtschaftliche Diversifizierung eine Ausweitung der Finanzierungstatigkeit im KMU-Sektor erfordern.

Głównym celem wieloautorskiej monografii jest ukazanie przebiegu i konsekwencji agresji Rosji na Ukrainę w wymiarze strategicznym, gospodarczym i wojskowym. W związku z tym zespół autorów – ekspertów w swoich dziedzinach – przeanalizował ten konflikt uwzględniając powyższe aspekty. Następnie, uwzględniając szeroki wachlarz zmiennych i czynników, głównie pozakonfliktowych oraz uwarunkowania i złożoność współczesnego świata określone zostały konsekwencje tej wojny. Należy podkreślić, że przeprowadzona analiza dotyczy pierwszego okresu konfliktu – od lutego do listopada 2022 r. – oraz czasu bezpośrednio poprzedzającego wybuch wojny – od września 2021 r., kiedy obserwowane były pierwsze przygotowania Rosji do agresji, a sporadycznie również wydarzeń po 2014 r., kiedy Rosja zaanektowała Półwysep Krymski, a od Ukrainy oderwana została część obwodu donieckiego i ługańskiego. Jednocześnie należy zakładać, że konsekwencje wojny oddziaływać będą przez wielu lat.
Dodatkowymi celami monografii było wyciągnięcie wniosków z przebiegu konfliktu oraz przedstawienie ewentualnych rekomendacji, przede wszystkim odnoszących się do modernizacji Sił Zbrojnych RP oraz polskiego przemysłu obronnego i jego zaplecza badawczo-rozwojowego. Choć wojna wciąż trwa, to jednak analiza jej dotychczasowego przebiegu obejmująca ponad 9 miesięcy, pozwala wysunąć znaczną liczbę konkluzji i wniosków. Wśród nich znajdują się takie, które mogły wynikać również z analizy ostatnich konfliktów w Europie i jej otoczeniu. Jednak znaczna ich część stanowi swoiste novum, co wynika z wybitnie odmiennego, od wcześniejszych konfliktów zbrojnych, charakteru wojny rosyjsko-ukraińskiej.

Les déficits budgétaires des pays de l'Union Économique et Monétaire Ouest Africaine (UEMOA), tout comme ceux des autres pays de la Communauté Économique des États de l'Afrique de l'Ouest (CEDEAO), paraissent non soutenables. Ces déficits budgétaires persistent face à une dette publique croissante. L'objectif de ce papier consiste à analyser les effets de la dette publique extérieure et intérieure sur les soldes budgétaires des pays de l'UEMOA de 2006 à 2020. Pour cela, nous avons eu recours à l'estimateur Least Square Dummy Variable (LSDV). Les résultats révèlent que la dette publique a un effet négatif sur le solde primaire mais n'a pas d'effet significatif sur le solde global. Les résultats indiquent par ailleurs, que l'effet négatif de la dette intérieure sur le solde primaire est plus important que celui de la dette extérieure. Les pays de l'UEMOA devraient maîtriser l'accumulation de la dette publique, en particulier la dette intérieure et améliorer la qualité de gestion financière afin d'avoir un retour de ressources budgétaires pour faire face aux chocs économiques.

JOINT ANNUAL REPORT FOR 2007 1. UPDATE OF THE POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL SITUATION 1.1 Update on the political situation ' Preferential voting requires voters to vote for candidates in order of their preferences. This enables candidates to seek support from outside their own clans and communities, while ensuring that elected MPs held a majority mandate from the people of their electorates. This is in accordance with the Organic Law on National and Local-Level Government Elections [1997 as amended to 2006], and associated regulations; b A law that guides the behaviour of political parties and candidates to avoid political horse-trading and to ensure political stability '2007 Election Assessment Report, Commonwealth PIF Assessment Team ' On average five (5) women candidates contested seats in each of the 20 Provinces, including the NCD.

Purpose: The objective of this research was to ascertain if the portion of the automotive industry that engages in non-tradable goods or export goods is the principal driving force behind the industry's expansion. The purpose of this paper is to fill the gap by focusing on the automotive industry as its principal area of investigation. Methodology: Productivity growth in the automotive industry was estimated utilizing an innovative hypothetical extraction method (HEM) for both the non-tradable goods sector and the export goods sector. Following that, the weighted multipliers approach is employed to allocate the productivity across the nontradable goods and export goods of the automotive industry. Findings: The findings indicate that the automotive industry maintains a strategy of development driven by exports. Production targeted for the domestic market is subject to significant limitations. Multinational automobile corporations tend to employ the strategy of exporting. The growth model of the automotive industry is significantly influenced by various institutional elements, including the Customs Union, taxes, and vertical integration. Originality: Although the automotive industry is an essential industry for exports, its growth model has not been comprehensively scrutinized. This study primarily focuses on investigating the growth model of the Turkish automotive industry and the institutional factors that influenced its strategic decisions.

Whilst globalisation contributed to development and improved living standards in the poorer and less developed countries (Milanovic) it has well left-out a large numbers of unemployed and under employed in the more developed countries. Those are the ones who lost their old jobs, many of which that have been outsourced abroad to lower-wage countries and who could not find alternative full time jobs while GDP growth in those countries slowed down.

While academic literature analyses how the profits of FDI are taxed at regular rates, or how they should be taxed on their return to the FDI source countries, they are often left untaxed as they are seldom returned but often reinvested or spent abroad so to avoid paying domestic income taxes.

In addition to the rising under and unemployment through job losses, the sovereign tax revenues have been deprived of income and diminishing and so have been the sources of social and other forms of securities expected from the states. The capital flows then often end up attracted to the major sovereign bonds often more than balancing-off their outflows, upsetting the capital imbalances in the recent years. Consequently, the US Federal Reserve has been asked to start targeting the current account balance and impose flexible tax charges on capital inflows so to reduce their inflows and to maintain current account in balance when the inflows exceed the outflows ( US Congress bill S.2375 (2019)). Taxing capital outflows however, is, not considered.

On the other hand, COVID19 supply shocks have shown that just-in time import delivery cannot be guaranteed and relied upon and so many net importer countries have started rethinking the globalisation aiming to reduce their dependency on distant-path routed foreign imports of, at least, the key goods. They are considering options such as re-localisation of the production, either within their own or those other less developed but closer countries.

This paper:

a) presents economic benefits of commerce re-localisation within the country or its region and,
b) suggests a new type of fiscal rule and additional tax measures for states to encourage local investment and employment and both, reduce local unemployment and social aid outflows whilst improving GDP.

Note: Presentation of its initial version was at the 8th Annual Political Economy Meeting, held at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Coimbra  (FEUC), Portugal, from January 30 to February 1, 2025 in organisation of the The Portuguese Association of Political Economy.

Sinopse internacional n. 17, abr. 2012 1) PANORAMA MUNDIAL O World Economic Outlook, divulgado pelo Fundo Monetário Internacional em abril, mostra as últimas projeções feitas pela instituição para o crescimento econômico mundial (Tabela 1.1). O documento ressalta que a economia global se vê em um processo gradual de recuperação no presente momento, porém ameaçado pela atual conjuntura na Zona do Euro e por outras fragilidades internas nas demais economias. Além disso, existem outros riscos à recuperação econômica, como os problemas relacionados à regulamentação financeira na Europa, a trajetória da política fiscal norte-americana e os fatores geopolíticos relacionados ao petróleo. O FMI prevê que o PIB global deve crescer 3,50% em 2012, ante 4,0% previstos anteriormente, em setembro. A redução da projeção de crescimento se deve, sobretudo, à situação na Zona do Euro, a qual deve apresentar uma pequena queda real do PIB neste ano como resultado do aumento dos riscos soberanos, dos efeitos da desalavancagem dos bancos sobre a economia real e dos impactos do processo de ajuste fiscal adotado pela maior parte dos governos nacionais da região. Além disso, é esperada uma desaceleração das economias em