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Structural Adjustment and Intersectoral Shifts in Tanzania: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

2001

https://doi.org/10.2499/0896291200RR117

Abstract

In memory of my dear brother Joachim v Contents List of Tables vi List of Figures viii Acronyms and Abbreviations x Foreword xii Acknowledgments xiii Summary xiv 1. Introduction 1 2. From African Socialism to a Free Market Economy 7 3. The General Equilibrium Approach 27 4. A Social Accounting Matrix and General Equilibrium Model for Tanzania 45 5. The Effects of Macroeconomic Policies on Growth, Equity, and Intersectoral Shifts 78 6. Results, Achievements, and Conclusions Appendix A : Recent Economic Indicators and Policies vi Tables 2.1 Annual exchange rates, 1985-98 2.2 Monthly exchange rates, 1995-96 2.3 Deposit and lending rates, 1992-98 4.1 Macroeconomic social accounting matrix 4.2 1992 macrosam for Tanzania (millions of 1992 TSh) 4.3 Accounts of the 1992 microsam for Tanzania 4.4 New macrosam for 1992 (millions of 1992 TSh) 4.5 Parameters and variables of the Tanzanian CGE model 4.6 Initial macroeconomic model closures 5.1 Policy bias experiments from initial base: Flexible exchange rate 5.2 Policy bias experiments from initial base: Fixed exchange rate 5.3 Policy bias experiments from synthetic base: Flexible exchange rate 5.4 Policy bias experiments from synthetic base: Fixed exchange rate 5.5 Sectoral structure of the Tanzanian economy based on 1992 SAM 5.6 Agricultural terms of trade (TOT) (value-added) and price indices under mobile versus fixed sectoral capital demand in nonagriculture 5.7 Sectoral structure of total factor payments based on 1992 SAM 5.8 Average marketing margin coefficients and respective total values for aggregate agriculture and nonagriculture A.1 Country data for Tanzania: Economic and social indicators A.2 Tanzania: Recent policy performance A.3 Tanzania: Physiographic regions A.4 Tanzania's domestic tax policies during the 1990s C.1 Distribution of labor value-added (million TSh and percent) C.2 Final household consumption (million TSh and percent) C.3 Individual income tax (rates, values, and shares per household group in million TSh and percentage) C.4 Household savings (rates, values, and shares per household group in million TSh and percent) D.1 1992 social accounting matrix for Tanzania respect to σ C variation G.2 Percentage change of real value-added deviations with respect to σ T variation x

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  1. notation for the cells of the macrosam cells is row, column. For example, "Commodities, Activities" represents an expenditure flow from the column "Activities" to the row "Commodities." Note that Tanzania's financial year ends on June 30; thus all data collected as financial year data have to be estimated for 1992 by computing the averages of 1991/92 and 1992/93 figures.
  2. Commodities, Activities): 1,276,427-Import-ridden intermediate de- mand. Total intermediate demand, including imports from unpublished Bureau of Statistics data sources adjusted by other indirect production taxes (Domestic Taxes, Activities).
  3. Factors, Activities): 1,456,047-Value-added at factor costs. Total value- added at factor costs as in Table 6(a) of URT (1997), adjusted accordingly to supplementary data to the Revised National Accounts of Tanzania 1987-96.
  4. Domestic Taxes, Activities): 27,032-Other indirect taxes. Other indirect taxes are calculated as a residual of total net taxes on products, as in Table 6(a) of URT (1997) and tariffs and sales taxes as provided by the supplemen- tary data to the Revised National Accounts of Tanzania 1987-96.
  5. Activities, Commodities): 2,320,484-Domestic supply. Domestic sup- ply is computed as the residual of the "Activities" column total (equal to gross output including informal-sector activities) minus exports (Activities, Rest of the World [ROW]) and OHC (Activities, Households).
  6. Domestic Taxes, Commodities): 43,475-Sales taxes. Total sales tax as provided in the supplementary data to the Revised National Accounts of Tan- zania 1987-96 and double-checked with data from Table 2.1 of the Bank of Tanzania's (BOT) Economic Bulletin, 1997, 1 st quarter, Dar es Salaam.
  7. Tariffs, Commodities): 23,451-Import duties. Total import duties as provided by the supplementary data to the Revised National Accounts of Tanzania 1987-96.
  8. ROW, Commodities): 553,363-Imports of goods and services. Total im- ports of goods and services at free on board (F.O.B.) prices as in Table 6(b) of URT (1997), adjusted by a 75 percent share of the unrecorded trade and T References
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